Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.429341 10.840921 12.367978 14.139706 16.135608 18.311292 20.859246
2025-04-20 7.491695 9.421361 11.676219 14.493188 17.904679 21.888211 26.876583
2025-04-27 6.496630 8.653855 11.301358 14.766000 19.153990 24.497516 31.464938
2025-05-04 5.582315 7.837947 10.732490 14.682055 19.887810 26.466544 35.353377
2025-05-11 4.837260 7.116640 10.159026 14.464767 20.339581 28.004042 38.674557
2025-05-18 4.313726 6.622621 9.816367 14.487384 21.060348 29.881093 42.491954
2025-05-25 3.926016 6.267959 9.614846 14.658093 21.954999 31.997819 46.699389
2025-06-01 3.545364 5.877231 9.315371 14.645137 22.561770 33.718966 50.416404
2025-06-08 3.185236 5.476177 8.957170 14.501971 22.946495 35.117821 53.715707
2025-06-15 2.936367 5.221877 8.792505 14.623737 23.709468 37.074621 57.884171
2025-06-22 2.784754 5.108266 8.831660 15.051801 24.945510 39.768534 63.239996
2025-06-29 2.527397 4.790718 8.515979 14.888767 25.245506 41.060162 66.541325
2025-07-06 2.177387 4.282850 7.854009 14.127360 24.568832 40.851544 67.594093
2025-07-13 2.059034 4.175372 7.854534 14.458904 25.666273 43.442433 73.090840
2025-07-20 1.943889 4.060745 7.829942 14.738821 26.683355 45.939195 78.531080
2025-07-27 1.783187 3.843445 7.605138 14.652347 27.074124 47.438975 82.434382
2025-08-03 1.620518 3.604999 7.321023 14.436371 27.222393 48.537073 85.717651
2025-08-10 1.505718 3.449862 7.176807 14.458628 27.778057 50.324168 90.194976
2025-08-17 1.419655 3.344610 7.117234 14.629147 28.598910 52.584602 95.543022
2025-08-24 1.319233 3.198672 6.966706 14.616174 29.083820 54.285640 100.005787
2025-08-31 1.213464 3.029967 6.757024 14.473276 29.317913 55.554669 103.769496
2025-09-07 1.144318 2.935010 6.687209 14.594821 30.043087 57.705415 109.130341
2025-09-14 1.109928 2.915536 6.770173 15.022129 31.362385 60.958734 116.537511